As I promised, I’ve been quiet here for the past nearly three months about the dramatic changes to Syria since the takeover by al-Jolani and his militias in December. Quiet but watching, hoping my fears would prove unfounded and I could say, “Yay Syria!”
Tragically that’s not the case. Horrific, violent chaos is going on in several areas of the country (Syria is about the same size as Washington state in the US and each area has its own general character and history). I’ll try my best – as an outsider who loves and admires Syria – to summarize this exceedingly fluid and complicated situation. The following is only my opinion of course…
When al-Jolani came in, Syrians were promised the moon. Salaries which had been at the equivalent of about $30 US would be raised to $400 or more. Syria would become the new Dubai – a resort of wealth. Sanctions would end. Freedom would reign – there would be no need to fear the state security apparatus. The New Syria would be all inclusive, safe, stable, strong, prosperous.
But since the new government came into power, there have been hundreds of abductions, beatings, tortures and field executions, particularly targeting the Alawites but also Christians, Druze, Ismailis, traditional Shia, and even some Sunnis. Al-Jolani and his forces are Sunni extremists and fundamentalists – most Syrian Sunnis have preferred living in a secular state (not religion based). Al-Jolani was formerly one of the top guys in ISIS in Iraq and formed the al Qaeda affiliate called al-Nusra in Syria. He later rebranded his group as Hayat Tahrir al Sham – HTS – to distance himself from his al Qaeda roots but his ideology remained the same (imo).
These attacks have been intense in the region of Homs, along the northwest coast in Lattakia and Tartous, around Hama, also in the south in Al-Suwayda, hot spots and isolated events all over really including Damascus.
The HTS forces, or former forces under al-Jolani which include many extremist foreigners from East Asian countries, have been claiming they’re administering justice against former Assad govt forces and supporters – in spite of Jolani originally promising amnesty – yet that “justice” has proven capricious and with such a broad definition even children and young women have been killed.
One of al-Jolani’s first dictates was that everyone not in his armed forces had to turn their weapons in to the government. Most Syrians complied and by far the great majority of the people have seemed determined to make this new reality in Syria work for the betterment of everyone.
The economy there is virtually non-existent and has been for years; especially since 2020, 90%+ of the people have gone into poverty with perhaps millions (I don’t know exact figures so that’s just a guess) at desperation, nearing or at starvation level. This is the result of 14 years of war, impoverishing sanctions by the US/West (designed to destroy the economy and make rebuilding impossible), and massive corruption that was made exponentially worse by the first two factors.
From what I have seen there’s been no ‘moon of prosperity’ rising. Prices remain high or have gotten higher other than on cheaper goods coming in from Turkey which hurts Syrian production/industry. Salaries, at least again from what I’ve seen, remain the same while thousands of Syrians have been fired from employment they had. This may not be true all over, that I don’t know. No significant sanctions have been removed – and people supporting the ‘revolution’ who used to say sanctions only hurt the government and not the people, are now screaming that sanctions hurt the people and they’re right, sanctions hurt the people because they’re designed to hurt the people and make them desperate.
One of the greatest catastrophes happened within days back in December. Israel, for whom the US/UK war mongering class manufactured this proxy war with efforts starting way back in 2004, bombed most of Syria’s military bases, ports, airfields, arsenals and heavy weapons, wiping out Syria’s defenses. Then they moved in to the south and have taken over big swaths of territory reaching to within about 25km of Damascus.
The last 24 hours have been a nightmare from the pit of hell. Some former Syrian Arab Army soldiers and others have formed resistance and protection militias, especially in predominantly Alawi areas on the coast. These militias attacked some of the HTS forces that have been committing the atrocities. HTS forces have hit back with blood thirsty vengeance, massacring dozens in villages and towns in the beautiful coastal areas – most of their victims were unarmed people opening their shops, waiting for bread from the bakery, and going about their day and were pounced upon, homes and shops looted, many men abducted, and people shot execution style. Reports are that Al-Jolani has said “no more amnesty the gloves are off” (while the so-called amnesty had been broken by his fighters from the start). HTS reinforcements have been sent to the coastal areas and the claim is they’ve ended the uprising in most/many places. I don’t know. Meanwhile Turkey is reported to be sending troops over their border with Syria.
I have no way of gauging how much popular support there may be for those resistance/protection militias though I have to say my gut feeling is there’s probably not too much? I don’t know. Syrians have gone through 14 years of war – that’s four years longer than WWI and WWII combined – young men of fighting age now would have been kindergarteners at the start.
Many of the HTS fighters and supporters out of sectarian hatred openly express their intentions of killing all Alawites and to “purify Syria” while new leaders insist they want Syria to be unified and inclusive of religious minorities.
In all this mess are the Syrian people who need a break, who want to live in peace with hope for a better future!! What’s to be done? I’ve no idea.
